Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from GFS and ECMWF indicate a modest daytime maximum for Buenos Aires on October 14, with southeasterly flow, extensive low-to-mid cloud cover, and light precipitation limiting solar heating. Multiple high-resolution runs converge on afternoon peaks near 18–20 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 19 °C (30.5 % implied) and 20 °C (26 %). Persistent onshore winds and elevated dew points are suppressing the typical spring warming that would otherwise push readings higher, while model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing keeps 18 °C and 21 °C viable. Resolution hinges on the official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observation at the central station; the next 12–24 h model updates will refine the precise peak before the market closes.