National Weather Service forecasts for San Francisco on October 14 indicate highs in the mid-60s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies transitioning to sunny conditions, with light winds and minimal precipitation risk, consistent with seasonal norms near 71°F. This baseline supports the market's emphasis on 74-75°F as the leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability, reflecting trader adjustments for potential model warming trends or microclimate differences between downtown and official reporting sites. Recent ensemble runs show limited spread, with low chances of exceeding 77°F or falling below 70°F, though updated NWS briefings on October 13 could refine steering patterns and temperature maxima ahead of resolution.