Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing list led by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter, has fluctuated near Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold in the run-up to the October 27 Knesset vote. Recent October polls show it at 1.5–1.8%, below the line in multiple surveys, while earlier readings placed it just above or around four projected seats. The tight clustering of trader probabilities between 2.5% and 5% reflects this volatility, driven by competition from established right-wing parties, the decision to run independently without mergers, and late undecided voters in a crowded field. Upcoming final polls, surplus-vote pacts, and election-day turnout among security-focused voters could shift the outcome within or beyond the current range.