Redistricting after the 2026 special session shifted Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District to an R+7 Partisan Voter Index, aligning it more closely with the 2024 presidential map where Republicans held a double-digit edge. Incumbent Democrat Shomari Figures, first elected under prior lines, now faces Republican nominee Rhett Marques in a contest rated Likely or Lean Republican by major forecasters. Marques secured the GOP nomination in the August primary and received a high-profile endorsement at a Trump rally in early October, where he framed the race around taxes, border security, and opposition to national Democratic priorities. Recent exchanges have centered on Marques’ state legislative record on fuel taxes and Figures’ vote against a congressional stock-trading measure, with the Democrat pushing for debates that the Republican has declined. Democratic groups have outspent Republicans on ads in recent weeks, yet trader pricing reflects the structural Republican tilt and limited path for an incumbent in the revised district ahead of the November 3 general election.