Traders assign overwhelming probability to ACA enhanced premium tax credits remaining unextended alongside a Democratic House majority because the subsidies expired at the end of 2025 and multiple extension attempts failed in both chambers during 2026, including recent Senate votes that rejected competing Democratic and Republican proposals. With open enrollment underway for 2026 plans, premiums have risen sharply and no legislative vehicle appears positioned to revive the credits before the November election. At the same time, national generic ballot polling, district-level forecasts, and prediction markets show Democrats holding a consistent lead that projects to a clear House majority, consistent with historical midterm patterns under unified Republican government. A last-minute bipartisan compromise or major polling reversal in the final weeks could still alter either component.