Anticipated Democratic gains in the November 2026 midterms represent the primary driver behind the 71% implied probability that President Trump will face House impeachment before January 2029. Traders price a strong likelihood of Democrats securing House control, enabling committee investigations and articles of impeachment on issues such as executive actions, agency operations, and alleged abuses of power. Republican majorities have tabled prior resolutions, including one introduced by Rep. Al Green in August 2026, but a shifted balance would remove that structural barrier. Historical patterns show impeachment efforts often follow opposition control of the House, though Senate conviction thresholds and timing within the term add uncertainty reflected in lower odds for removal.