Recent National Hurricane Center observations and satellite estimates confirm Hurricane Simon reached a peak intensity of 130 knots (150 mph), placing it firmly in Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale before terrain interaction with Mexico's mountains initiated weakening. Compact size and rapid intensification earlier in the week supported this peak without crossing into Category 5 thresholds, aligning with model consensus and aircraft reconnaissance data. Trader consensus at 96.7% for Category 4 reflects these verified measurements over initial forecasts that briefly allowed for higher-end strengthening. A late offshore recovery or revised post-storm analysis could shift the outcome, though current trends and land proximity make such revisions unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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