Strong domestic demand and the AI-driven surge in capital goods imports, including semiconductors and industrial machinery, have kept monthly US trade deficits elevated despite reciprocal tariffs, positioning the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome with 45% implied probability. August’s $105.6 billion gap—the widest since March 2025—reflected record $420.8 billion imports, while October’s sharp contraction to $29.4 billion highlighted tariff-related volatility and front-loading reversals. Year-to-date through August the cumulative deficit remains 19.9% below 2025 levels, yet AI investment continues to support higher goods inflows that offset policy-driven import compression. Traders are pricing in sustained but moderated imbalances through year-end data releases and any further tariff adjustments, with the services surplus providing a partial offset.