Recent Treasury General License 135, issued October 9 following the Trump-Putin call, temporarily authorizes Russian diesel imports into the United States through April 2027, overriding prior sanctions restrictions. However, the 2022 statutory ban on Russian energy imports remains in force with an additional 90-day wind-down period, raising legal challenges from lawmakers that could delay or block actual deliveries. With only 18 days until the October 31 resolution, tanker transit times, limited Russian export capacity amid refinery damage, and modest announced volumes of roughly 60,000 barrels per day make physical arrivals improbable. Traders therefore assign 76.5% implied probability to no imports by the deadline, reflecting these near-term logistical and statutory constraints over the policy opening.