Tyler Robinson faces trial on aggravated murder and related charges in the 2025 shooting death of Charlie Kirk after a Utah judge found probable cause on September 1, 2026, and allowed prosecutors to pursue the death penalty. The ruling followed a preliminary hearing presenting surveillance video, DNA evidence, ballistics, and alleged confessions via messages to a roommate. Robinson entered not-guilty pleas, and defense arguments focused on challenging the capital aggravator and evidence admissibility. With a status conference set for October 23 to schedule proceedings that could extend into 2027 or later, traders price the eventual conviction outcome below even odds amid standard trial uncertainties, potential plea negotiations, and evidentiary disputes.