Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding lead in the Ottawa mayoral race as the October 26 election nears, with recent Nanos and Abacus polling showing him at 49-52 percent support among decided voters against 16-31 percent for his nearest challengers. Incumbency advantages, consistent messaging on controlled tax increases, infrastructure investment, transit affordability, and public safety have reinforced his position ahead of advance voting. The fragmented field, including city councillor Jeff Leiper, economist Neil Saravanamuttoo, and homebuilder Alex Lawson, has limited any single alternative from consolidating opposition support. With election day just days away and roughly one in four voters still undecided in some surveys, the market pricing reflects broad trader consensus on the low likelihood of a late reversal absent major unforeseen developments.