Recent polling from late September through early October shows incumbent Iliana Iotova leading first-round voting intentions at 44–50% among decided voters, with Andrey Gyurov second at 24–27% and Kostadin Kostadinov third near 10%, amid expectations of 35–40% turnout. With 27 tickets registered and a two-round system requiring an outright majority or 50% turnout for a first-round win, vote fragmentation and undecided voters create substantial uncertainty around Iotova’s precise share. Ongoing campaign activity, including Iotova’s public statements on Black Sea security and state institutions, alongside Gyurov’s reformist backing, keeps the distribution of support fluid heading into the October 25 vote. Trader pricing reflects this volatility in her projected percentage outcome.