The large but regionally contained 2026 Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 8,700 confirmed cases and 4,200 deaths with a 48% case fatality ratio, underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability against a pandemic. Official WHO and CDC data show intense transmission concentrated in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, with only sporadic imported cases in Uganda, Kenya, and France that produced no sustained secondary chains. Robust contact tracing, border screening of over 650,000 travelers in Kenya alone, and rapid isolation have kept global spread minimal, consistent with historical patterns where Bundibugyo outbreaks remain geographically limited. A realistic shift would require the virus to establish efficient human-to-human transmission across multiple continents or overwhelm surveillance systems in additional countries, an outcome current epidemiological indicators do not support.