**Morena holds the leading position in the Campeche Congress election market at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting its status as the largest legislative bloc following the 2024 results and its continued organizational strength ahead of the 2027 state elections.** Internal divisions within Morena, including recent fractures involving legislators distancing from Governor Layda Sansores over policy disputes and party leadership tensions, have prompted national party intervention, such as the appointment of a special delegate in October 2026 to pursue reconciliation and retain members. Polling for related local contests shows Morena competitive or ahead in key municipalities, while opposition parties including Movimiento Ciudadano, PRI, PAN, and smaller groups trail significantly in both historical seat shares and current surveys. Trader consensus appears anchored in Morena’s incumbency advantages and coalition dynamics, though ongoing factional strains and opposition efforts to consolidate could influence outcomes in the multi-party contest for the 35-seat legislature.