Morena holds a dominant position in Oaxaca's current state congress, controlling roughly two-thirds of seats alongside allies PVEM and PT for over 80% combined representation following the 2024 elections. This structural advantage, reinforced by recent legislative actions such as approving constitutional reforms on the Guardia Nacional and abortion decriminalization, underpins trader consensus favoring Morena at 70.5% implied probability to win the next contest. PVEM trails at 14.3% as a junior coalition partner, while PRI at 8.0% and PAN at 1.1% reflect limited opposition strength. Preparations for the 2027 vote, including candidate registration timelines and internal party processes, show no major shifts that would alter the balance ahead of the June election.