Morena holds the leading position in the Sonora Congress election market at a 62.5% implied probability, reflecting its current majority of 11 seats in the 33-member legislature and consistent strength across multiple state contests. Traders appear to weigh the party's dominance in 26 local congresses nationwide, recent federal election gains, and alignment with the state executive as key advantages heading into the 2027 vote. Opposition parties such as PAN, PRI, PVEM, PT, and MC register lower odds, consistent with their smaller current delegations and limited recent breakthroughs in Sonora. The multi-outcome structure leaves room for shifts from coalition dynamics, candidate selection, or turnout patterns in the coming year.