Recent diplomatic signals point to the November APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, as the most immediate venue for a Trump-Putin bilateral or possible trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping. Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov stated after an October phone call that both leaders are inclined to attend the event and could use the sidelines for direct talks, with Putin publicly confirming openness to a three-way format. This aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward China and reflects trader assessment of confirmed attendance plans and the absence of comparable near-term alternatives. The modest share for no meeting by year-end incorporates scheduling uncertainty or last-minute shifts, while other listed locations remain negligible given the APEC timeline and current bilateral momentum.