Recent US diplomatic emphasis on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict ahead of alliance expansion, combined with Ukrainian signals favoring legally binding Western security guarantees over immediate NATO accession, sustains trader expectations that Kyiv will not commit to excluding membership before 2027. NATO's requirement for unanimous consensus, the active war, and Ukraine's constitutional euro-Atlantic orientation create significant procedural and political barriers to any such short-term pledge. Zelenskyy has described alternatives to membership as a compromise, while parliamentary proposals to adjust neutrality language remain preliminary. Shifts in peace talks, US policy under the current administration, or formal constitutional changes could still introduce volatility before the 2027 threshold.