Traders assign a 98.6% implied probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027 due to the alliance’s entrenched institutional framework, reaffirmed Article 5 commitments at the 2026 Ankara summit, and legal barriers such as the congressional authorization requirement for any U.S. withdrawal. Recent U.S. reviews of European force posture and calls for a more Europe-led “NATO 3.0” have prompted burden-sharing adjustments and new strategic planning, yet member states continue joint exercises, command transitions, and defense spending increases without triggering exits. Ongoing hybrid tensions with Russia have instead reinforced collective planning rather than fragmentation. While a formal U.S. departure or coordinated allied withdrawals remain theoretically possible within the resolution window, the combination of treaty procedures, allied consensus, and rapid adaptation keeps dissolution highly improbable in the near term.