US officials have maintained that the May 2025 Oman-brokered agreement with Yemen’s Houthis remains in effect, with the group continuing to pledge non-targeting of US vessels despite intensified fighting between Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces. Recent Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi airports and infrastructure have prompted Riyadh to request greater US military support, yet the Trump administration has limited involvement to intelligence sharing while rejecting direct offensive strikes. Diplomatic channels stay open, and US priorities include managing a separate conflict with Iran. The market prices high probabilities for continuation through mid-to-late October because no qualifying US military action against Houthi targets has occurred, though escalation in Red Sea or Saudi border operations could alter that assessment if it draws American forces into strikes.