Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Mokha port and Perim Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by mid-September 2026, have heightened the risk of successful strikes on commercial vessels, supporting elevated war-risk insurance premiums and freight rates for the route. These gains followed a July naval blockade declaration against Saudi-linked shipping and coincided with resumed missile and drone activity, diverting some Saudi crude exports—now averaging over 4 million barrels per day via Yanbu—while Brent crude traded above $100 amid dual disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz. Traders price ongoing leverage over this chokepoint, which handles roughly 7% of global oil trade, against counteroffensives by Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and international naval patrols that have limited recent hits. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure and any escalation in naval engagements through October.