Escalating cross-border strikes and a Saudi-backed Yemeni government offensive have driven recent trader focus on potential Saudi military action. On October 5, 2026, forces aligned with the internationally recognized Yemeni government launched Operation Dawn of Yemen to reclaim territory seized by Houthis in western Yemen, including areas near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, with Saudi coalition airstrikes providing extensive support against Houthi positions in Sanaa, Taiz, and elsewhere. Houthis responded with repeated ballistic missile and drone attacks on Saudi targets, including multiple strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport that killed at least 17 and injured hundreds, plus hits on Aramco facilities and other infrastructure through mid-October. Saudi forces have conducted retaliatory strikes on Houthi-held sites in Yemen while intercepting incoming projectiles, amid limited additional support from Turkey and Pakistan under existing defense pacts. These tit-for-tat developments within the past two weeks represent the dominant recent catalyst shaping assessments of further direct Saudi operations.