The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for November 2026 rose to 51.0, beating consensus expectations near 48 and landing in the 49.0–51.9 range that commands 46.1% market-implied probability. Gains concentrated among independents reflected modest improvements in personal finances and business conditions, alongside a decline in one-year inflation expectations to 4.3% from 4.7%. Persistent cost-of-living pressures remain dominant, with 57% of respondents citing eroded living standards, while AI-related concerns played a secondary role and equity-market turbulence weighed on higher-wealth households. Trader consensus assigns 26.5% odds to 52.0–54.9 and 23.0% to 46.0–48.9, consistent with the index’s still-elevated historical lows and the pending final release on November 20.