Recent CDC final data for 2025 births, released in late October, anchors trader sentiment around 3.56M–3.59M for 2026 by confirming a continued slide to a record-low general fertility rate of 53.2. Younger women’s birth rates hit new lows across teens through the late 20s, while modest gains among women in their 30s and early 40s reflect the broader cultural shift toward delayed parenthood amid high child-rearing costs and career priorities. Pronatalist policy signals, including proposed baby bonuses, have yet to reverse the long-term narrative of sub-replacement fertility that began accelerating after 2007. With economic uncertainty and evolving family-formation trends still dominant, the market sees limited upside for a rebound in total births this year.