Recent Swiss inflation data at 1.5% in October 2026—the highest since late 2023 and driven by energy prices—has lifted expectations for SNB monetary policy normalization, supporting the 33.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point hike at the March 2027 assessment. The policy rate has remained at 0% since June 2025, with the central bank’s conditional forecasts assuming unchanged rates and inflation staying within the 0-2% price stability range. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around second-round effects and the Swiss franc’s role, while economist forecasts from UBS and others point to potential March and June 2025 tightening amid robust growth and diverging global rates. The December 10, 2026 meeting and updated inflation figures represent key near-term catalysts that could shift these market-implied odds.