Current U.S. regular gasoline prices average $4.15 per gallon as of early November 2026, supported by elevated crude benchmarks near $89–$97 per barrel amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and global refining constraints. Trader consensus at 94.1% implies these structural supply pressures and seasonal winter demand will prevent a rapid decline to the $3.50 threshold within the remaining eight weeks of 2026, even as Democratic congressional control raises prospects for policy shifts favoring de-escalation. Market-implied odds reflect the limited scope for immediate crude price relief or inventory surges sufficient to drive such a steep drop. A swift, verifiable resolution restoring full oil flows or unexpected refinery restarts could still alter the path.