Recent polling averages place Likud at roughly 22 seats ahead of the October 27 election, with individual surveys ranging from 19 to 26 and the Netanyahu-aligned bloc holding a narrow edge near 53 seats. Traders appear to weigh persistent competition from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which frequently leads or ties Likud, alongside bloc fragmentation that leaves both sides short of a Knesset majority. Late-September and early-October surveys show modest Likud gains amid ongoing October 7 commemorations, security debates, and high undecided-voter shares. The market’s concentration on the 20-24 range aligns with these consistent averages, while lower-probability bins reflect poll volatility and coalition-formation uncertainties that could still shift final seat totals.