**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient economy have anchored market-implied odds for the remaining 2026 FOMC meetings.** After the unanimous 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75–4.00% range in September, the Summary of Economic Projections placed the median year-end federal funds rate at 4.1%, signaling one additional increase. September FOMC minutes released October 7 reinforced that most participants viewed a further hike by year-end as appropriate amid upside inflation risks. Softer September payrolls and contained August core PCE readings around 3% have lowered October hike probabilities sharply, shifting the consensus path toward a pause at the October 28 meeting followed by a December 9 move. Futures and trader positioning now heavily favor this Hike–Pause–Hike sequence at 69%, reflecting data-dependent policy expectations and limited time before year-end resolution.