**Bank of Canada policymakers face a narrow balance between inflation risks and softening growth as they approach the December 9 decision.** With the overnight rate steady at 2.25%, recent labor data showing job losses and a 6.5% unemployment rate have reinforced expectations for patience, while headline CPI near 2.4% and elevated oil prices keep upside risks in focus. Market-implied odds of roughly 54.5% for no change versus 43% for a 25-basis-point hike reflect this tension, with traders pricing in the potential for policy to move toward the neutral range if core measures remain contained near 2%. Softer activity and trade uncertainties, including tariff effects, have tempered aggressive tightening bets despite September communications highlighting inflation vigilance. The October 28 meeting and upcoming inflation releases will likely shape the path into December.