**Traders price a 76.5% probability that Alexandre de Moraes will remain on Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court (STF) through the relevant resolution window.** Despite a September 2026 scandal over alleged ties between Moraes’s family and a disgraced banker in the Banco Master case, which prompted dozens of Senate impeachment petitions and editorials calling for his exit, the Senate has never removed an STF justice and requires a supermajority that has not materialized. Internal court tensions led Chief Justice Edson Fachin to reassign the long-running fake news inquiry away from Moraes, yet he continues issuing rulings, including recent enforcement actions against Bolsonaro family members. Right-wing Senate gains after the first-round vote have heightened long-term risks if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the October 25 runoff, but structural tenure protections, procedural hurdles, and the absence of immediate Senate action sustain the current trader consensus against near-term removal.