Democrats' strong positioning ahead of the November 2026 midterms drives the 71% implied probability that the House will impeach President Trump before January 2029. Markets price Democratic House control at roughly 85%, which would enable a simple-majority vote on articles once the new Congress convenes in 2027. Some Democrats, including Rep. Jamie Raskin, have cited alleged executive overreach on tariffs, immigration enforcement, and the Iran conflict as grounds, while party leaders have neither ruled out nor committed to proceedings. Republicans currently hold both chambers, making near-term action improbable. Removal by the Senate would still require a two-thirds vote unlikely under current partisan alignments, but the lower threshold for House impeachment alone sustains elevated trader odds.