**Constitutional ineligibility and Musk’s consistent public statements form the core driver of the 97.2% “No” consensus.** Article II requires a natural-born U.S. citizen for the presidency; Musk, born in South Africa, has repeatedly cited this barrier and stated he has no interest in the office, preferring to focus on his companies. After briefly floating a third-party effort in 2025, he quietly shelved those plans to preserve ties with Republican figures ahead of 2028 cycles and has shown no recent signals of a personal candidacy. Traders view an announcement before 2027 as improbable absent a constitutional change or dramatic reversal of his long-standing position, both of which lack supporting developments in the current cycle.