**No major Republican has formally declared a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-October 2026, leaving the field open and driving the 50% price on “Other.”** J.D. Vance leads named options at 29.5% because early national polls show him as the clear frontrunner (typically 37–44%), reflecting his role as sitting vice president and perceived continuity with the Trump administration. Ron DeSantis (20.5%) and Ted Cruz (16%) follow due to their prior national campaigns, term limits freeing DeSantis after 2027, and Cruz’s recent public comments signaling interest, though both trail Vance substantially in surveys. Rubio’s lower price aligns with his statements of having “no plans at this time.” The market prices reflect trader views that an early announcement is more likely to come from a lower-profile or unlisted contender than from the top-polling names, who remain focused on the 2026 midterms and have not yet committed to timelines.