Recent statements from Kremlin aides, including Yuri Ushakov, and a substantive October 10 phone call between the leaders have centered expectations on the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit scheduled for Shenzhen, China, in November. Both sides have signaled interest in attendance, creating a venue for bilateral talks on the sidelines. This development anchors the 76.5% market price on China as the implied location for any 2026 encounter. The 18.5% probability assigned to no meeting by year-end accounts for remaining uncertainties around confirmation and scheduling. Low odds on other sites reflect the absence of comparable official signals or upcoming multilateral events in those locations through December.