**Recent political developments show continued advocacy but limited progress toward enacting a new Turkish constitution before the end of 2026.** President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the ruling AK Party have renewed calls for a “civilian, democratic” charter to replace the 1982 document, with the party completing internal drafting work in September and Erdoğan designating the current parliamentary session a potential “year of the Constitution” during the October 1 opening address. These statements link reform to broader consensus-building, citing the large majority that backed recent “Terror-Free Türkiye” legislation on PKK disarmament. However, advancing a new constitution requires substantial cross-party support—typically at least 360 of 600 seats for key changes without a referendum—and sustained opposition cooperation that has not materialized. Critics tie the effort to debates over presidential term limits ahead of 2028 elections, while procedural hurdles and the short remaining timeline in 2026 make full legislative movement improbable. Traders therefore assign an 81% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the gap between rhetorical momentum and the structural barriers to timely passage.