Recent direct engagement between President Trump and President Putin, including a substantive 90-minute phone call on October 10, has elevated trader expectations for an in-person meeting. Kremlin statements highlighted the leaders' rapport and floated the possibility of a bilateral encounter on the sidelines of the November 18-19 APEC summit in China, where both have expressed interest in attending. Earlier diplomacy featured U.S. envoys visiting Moscow, sanctions relief tied to Russian diesel exports, and an invitation for Putin to the December G20 in Miami. These developments, set against stalled Ukraine peace talks and Putin's reluctance to resume negotiations immediately, underpin market pricing that assigns high implied probability to a meeting occurring before year-end while leaving room for delays from scheduling, battlefield conditions, or shifting diplomatic priorities.