**Sweden held its scheduled general election on September 13, 2026, producing a narrow left-leaning parliamentary majority (176–173 seats) that has shifted attention to extended government-formation talks rather than an immediate snap poll.** The centre-left bloc led by Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson secured the edge after the right-wing Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, supported by Sweden Democrats) lost ground, particularly as the Sweden Democrats recorded their first decline in support since entering parliament. Kristersson resigned as prime minister, but Andersson’s subsequent mandate to form a four-party government collapsed over irreconcilable differences—chiefly the Centre Party’s refusal to govern with the Left Party and the latter’s insistence on ministerial posts. As of mid-October 2026, the speaker continues consulting party leaders after Andersson returned her mandate; the right bloc may receive the next exploratory opportunity. Sweden’s negative parliamentarism rules require only that a prime-minister candidate not face a majority opposed, but four rejected candidates would automatically trigger a new election. Ongoing probes into alleged irregularities in a few districts add procedural uncertainty, yet no party has pushed for dissolution, and historical precedent shows protracted negotiations (37 days in 2022, far longer in 2018) are the norm before any snap vote. Traders therefore assign high probability to “No,” viewing the recent regular election and ongoing constitutional process as strong barriers to an additional poll being called before year-end.