Aleksandar Vučić’s “United Serbia” list leads the Serbia parliamentary election market at 61.5 percent implied probability, reflecting his Serbian Progressive Party’s long-term dominance and recent consolidation ahead of the October 25 snap vote. Vučić resigned the presidency in late September to head the list for prime minister, framing the contest as a decisive choice on the country’s direction amid ongoing polarization. The main challenger, the Student List at 38.5 percent, emerged from nearly two years of anti-corruption protests triggered by the 2024 Novi Sad railway station collapse and has drawn support from opposition parties and youth turnout. Recent polls place the ruling coalition near 46–49 percent and the students near 37–39 percent, with only a handful of other lists, including Ivica Dačić’s, projected to clear the threshold. Traders appear to price in the ruling list’s organizational advantages and the students’ limited prior electoral experience while noting the race remains competitive until ballots close.