**The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) secured 40 seats in the October 5, 2026, provincial election, aligning with the market’s leading 40-43 outcome.** Final certified results showed the PLQ at roughly 24.2% of the popular vote, placing it second behind the Parti Québécois (PQ) minority government of 59 seats while ahead of the Conservatives (19) and Québec solidaire (9). The PLQ doubled its previous seat count through targeted gains in Montreal-area ridings, Laval, the Eastern Townships, Outaouais, and Montérégie, where it outperformed the PQ in francophone and anglophone strongholds. Late-campaign polling and seat projections from firms such as Léger, Pallas Data, and Route127 consistently placed the Liberals in the mid-to-high 30s, with upside potential from CAQ collapse and PCQ regional strength fragmenting the vote. Traders priced the 40-43 bracket highest because confirmed riding-level results and the party’s official-opposition status matched those forecasts more closely than lower ranges. No major recounts or adjustments have altered the 40-seat total.