Recent hotter-than-expected September CPI data, showing headline inflation at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 2.6%, has narrowed the gap for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting by lifting futures-implied hike odds from around 22% to near 45%. Traders still assign the highest probability to no change, reflecting the Fed's post-September minutes emphasis on data dependence, cooler labor-market readings, and a preference for additional evidence before another 25 basis point move from the current 3.75-4.00% target range. The decision sits just before midterms, adding caution, while December remains the more likely window for further tightening if inflation persists.