Recent softer inflation readings, including August core PCE at 3%, combined with a weak September jobs report showing just 29,000 payroll gains, have reinforced trader expectations for a Federal Reserve pause at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Officials, including Governor Waller, have highlighted flexibility in the pace of tightening and the need for additional data, while September’s 25 basis point hike to the 3.75-4% target range already addressed immediate concerns. This setup leaves a December move as the more probable next step, with market-implied odds for no change at 86.5% reflecting the current balance between persistent inflation above the 2% target and a stable yet cooling labor market. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI and PCE releases that could shift the risk assessment.