Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS outputs, point to a modest high of 19–21°C in Paris on October 16 as a frontal boundary brings increasing cloud cover, a west-northwest wind shift, and light afternoon rain that limits daytime heating. Thursday’s warmer southerly flow (peaking near 24°C) gives way to cooler maritime air, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 20°C (35%) and 21°C (25%). Historical October averages near 17–18°C provide context, while forecast uncertainty around exact cloud timing and any model adjustments before resolution keeps probabilities spread across 19–22°C outcomes.