Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including Météo-France and ECMWF indicate southerly flow under high pressure will drive Paris temperatures on October 15 to a maximum near 24°C, with limited cloud cover and negligible precipitation supporting daytime warming above the seasonal average. Consensus across GFS and other ensembles shows afternoon peaks clustering between 23–25°C, explaining the tight market concentration on those three outcomes, while minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds accounts for the implied probabilities favoring 24°C slightly over 23°C. Official observations from central Paris stations will resolve the market, with the latest runs showing little change in the 24–48 hours ahead.