Recent political instability in Guinea-Bissau, including the November 2025 coup that annulled prior legislative results and the August 2026 constitutional referendum expanding presidential powers while shrinking parliament to 65 seats, has left the field highly fragmented ahead of the rescheduled December 2026 vote. The Platforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” coalition, formed as a multi-party alliance in 2025, holds the highest implied probability due to its broader base and organizational reach compared to standalone parties like PT or FLING. Internal divisions, such as recent leadership splits within APU-PDGB over alliance participation and election boycotts, alongside missed candidacy deadlines that have delayed the contest, underscore barriers to consolidation. Trader consensus reflects these structural uncertainties and the potential for further realignments or transitional government actions to shift momentum among contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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