**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the late-October FOMC meeting, reflecting a post-September data backdrop where the labor market has stabilized near 4.2% unemployment and incoming inflation readings have not yet justified an immediate follow-up hike.** The Fed raised the target range to 3.75-4.00% in September—the first increase since 2023—with minutes indicating most participants view another 25 basis point move as likely by year-end on persistent price pressures. However, recent employment trends and the timing of the September CPI release (due October 14) have kept trader consensus tilted toward a pause, with only modest pricing for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the October CPI trajectory, labor market revisions, and any fresh communications ahead of the October 28 decision that could shift the balance toward December action.