Recent September CPI data showed headline inflation easing to 3.2% year-over-year with core measures moderating further, while nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 amid an unemployment rate holding near 4.2%. These readings, following the Fed’s 25-basis-point hike in September to the 3.75–4.00% target range, have reduced near-term policy urgency. FOMC minutes highlighted that most participants still view an additional increase as likely appropriate by year-end on inflation risks, yet signaled data dependence and openness to pausing at the October 27–28 meeting. Treasury yields and futures pricing embed this path, with the 80.5% probability of no change reflecting trader assessment that incoming figures favor holding steady before any further adjustment.