**Persistent inflation and the Federal Open Market Committee's September projections anchor trader expectations for a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the December 9, 2026, meeting.** After the September 25bp increase to the 3.75-4.00% target range, the median dot plot projected a 4.1% year-end midpoint, and October 7 minutes showed most participants viewing an additional hike as likely appropriate by year-end to address elevated price pressures. August CPI stood at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, while the labor market remains resilient with unemployment near 4.2% and modest payroll gains. These factors drive the 75.5% market-implied probability for the 25bp increase, versus 22.5% for no change, as traders weigh incoming data such as the September CPI release on October 14 and the October FOMC decision against the Fed's hawkish guidance.