The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision is priced by traders for an 80.8% likelihood of no change at the current 2.25% overnight rate, reflecting the central bank’s extended hold amid subdued growth and persistent economic slack. Recent data show decelerating activity in July and August, limited job gains, and ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariffs that began affecting exports, all of which support patience despite elevated oil prices lifting headline inflation. Markets have modestly priced a 18.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike after the Bank’s September statement flagged inflation risks, yet analysts note that broader pass-through into underlying measures remains limited and excess supply continues to absorb price pressures. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and the Q3 Business Outlook Survey, which will shape whether the implied odds shift before the announcement.