The Bank of Canada’s October 28 decision carries an 87.8% market-implied probability of no change at the current 2.25% overnight rate, reflecting trader consensus that softening labor conditions outweigh near-term inflation pressures. Headline CPI has held near 3% amid elevated gasoline prices tied to global oil supply risks, yet core measures remain close to the 2% target, with limited evidence of broad spillovers. September employment data showing the steepest year-to-date job losses since 2020 reinforced expectations of patience, as excess supply persists and growth faces tariff-related uncertainty. This pricing aligns with overnight index swap forwards implying only a modest +7 basis point move. The September CPI release on October 19 remains the key pre-decision catalyst that could shift probabilities if underlying inflation broadens.