Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core PCE near 3.4% and limited recent progress, combined with resilient growth revised upward to 2.3% and unemployment at 4.1%, underpins the 80% market-implied odds of another 2026 rate hike. The September FOMC raised the federal funds rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range, and the Summary of Economic Projections showed a median endpoint of 4.1% for year-end 2026, with 16 of 18 participants anticipating at least one additional increase. Recent minutes and official comments, including from Governor Waller, reinforce expectations of further tightening by December while allowing flexibility on timing, as futures markets price an 85% chance of at least one more move this year. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 FOMC decision and incoming inflation and labor data.